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Monday, August 10, 2015
Misinformation Persists During Drought
Saturday, August 1, 2015
July Update
July turned out to be the rainiest July on record with nearly 1/2 inch of rain falling. Even with that, we still used 80,000 gallons of water per household, far above the state average. We were better than last year and we beat Fresno's targeted savings. For the year, we are 14% better than last year and only 2% behind the target.
Mainline Water Valve Locations
Several of you found your main water valve locations and reported those locations. Thank you. There are still 15 missing locations, mine being one. We will be hiring a plumber in the next few weeks to locate the missing valves. The estimate is $75 to $100 for each valve. Only those members with missing valves will be charged for the location costs which will be invoiced along with the next annual billing.
Friday, July 31, 2015
State says water use fell by 27% in June
SACRAMENTO
California’s unprecedented system of mandatory conservation imposed on cities got off to a strong start with water use plunging 27% in June, regulators said Thursday.
Data released by the State Water Resources Control Board showed 265 of 411 local agencies in California hit or nearly reached savings targets.
The governor ordered cities to reduce water use by 25% to prepare in case California’s four-year drought persists.
The savings came during the hottest June on record, which would normally lead to an up-tick in water use. Prior savings have occurred during unusually wet months.
“The June numbers tell a story of conscious conservation, and that’s what we need and are applauding today,” said Felicia Marcus, chairwoman of the water board. “We need to save as much as possible. That is water essentially in the bank for a future dry year or more.”
The report confirmed figures previously released by California’s largest cities, including Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose and San Francisco, showing strong water conservation.
The agencies that met or came within 1% of their mandatory water conservation target serve 27 million Californians.
In the Valley, Selma did the best at reducing its usage, saving 39.6% in June compared to the same time a year ago and exceeding its 32% mandate. The city is served by the California Water Service Co.
Fresno also topped its 28% target by cutting its water consumption
30% last month.
“We’re on the right track, but we can’t rest on our laurels,” said Tom Esqueda, Fresno’s director of public utilities. “We’re urging everyone to focus on conservation during the hot summer months where we can make the biggest reductions. If we start falling behind in our projections, it’ll be hard to catch up in November when water use diminishes.”
Clovis, however, fell short of its goal. It lowered use 33% year-over-year, just shy of its 36% state mandate.
“If they took into account growth over the last two years, we would have made it,” said Lisa Koehn, assistant public utilities director for Clovis. “We’re one of the fastest-growing cities in the Valley. I think we did really well.”
Hanford missed its goal badly, reducing water use by only 9.9%, a far cry from its 28% requirement.
Hanford City Manager Darrel Pyle said the city’s water conservation plan, first instituted in 1988, has helped keep water use low compared to other communities with no guidelines. The state is measuring this year’s water use against 2013 levels that were low to begin with, he said.
Pyle believes the real comparisons should be on the number of gallons of water used per person a day. The estimated per-capita daily home water use in Hanford was 135.8 gallons compared to 179.9 in Lemoore, 157.4 in Visalia and 202.6 in Corcoran.
“We’ve got dead trees all over town, dead lawns all over town,” Pyle said. “I’m not sure what other measures we’ll actually be able to do. ... We’re doing our part; that’s sure.”
DEADLINE TO CONSERVE
Under water board regulations for mandatory water savings, communities have nine months to hit assigned conservation targets as high as 36%. Water savings are compared to 2013, the year before Brown declared a drought emergency.
Some agencies opposed the targets, saying they were unfair and unrealistic and didn’t give enough credit for prior conservation efforts.
Many that objected managed to reach their targets anyway, including San Diego, which saved 24% in June.
Robyn Bullard, a spokeswoman for the public utilities department, credited widespread messaging that included an e-mail blast to customers and television commercials.
The water board is separately telling thousands of farmers that there is not enough water available to divert from rivers and streams under their rights.
Multiple irrigation districts have been challenging the curtailment in court.
A Sacramento County judge indicated at a Thursday hearing that she would side with the state’s new approach to warning of insufficient supplies after she ruled that earlier notices violated farmers’ rights.
Summer is peak time for water use, and strong residential conservation could continue through July because of record rainfall in Southern California.
The water board says it will contact every agency that didn’t come close to its targets and ask for more information about what it’s doing to conserve.
The worst performers, which include the water districts serving wealthy areas in the desert’s Coachella Valley and Temecula in Riverside County, will be told to ramp up water waste enforcement or limit days that residents can water lawns.
Regulators have the power to impose fines on agencies that consistently miss targets, but they say that’s a last resort.
Water waste enforcement also shot up drastically in June. Agencies issued more than 9,500 penalties compared to about 1,900 in May.
Meteorologists say a wet California winter is increasingly likely as a strong El Niño condition builds in the Pacific Ocean, although it’s unclear if it will be a drought-buster.
A study released by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration says precipitation in California since 2012 was 20 inches short of normal, equivalent to losing a full year of rain.
Bee staff writer BoNhia Lee contributed to this report.
Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Earth Log
Fresno Bee
Clovis issues $125,000 in fines
Fresno Bee
Clovis is sending a message to residents and business owners not managing a 36% cut in water consumption required by the state. For its June billing cycle, the city hit customers with $125,197 in fines, said Luke Serpa, the city’s public utilities director.
Second-offense fines for residential users in Clovis are $50 per customer and will be charged for future penalties, too.
Monday, July 20, 2015
Water-saving tips offered at California State Fair
SACRAMENTO — Water-saving tips to weather the drought are key features at this year’s California State Fair, which runs through July 26.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Moody Superstar Which Face Will El Niño Show Us This Winter?
A rainfall bonanza could be coming to California Ocean temperature is comparable to strongest El Niño But there is more than one warm-water blob in the ocean
Fresno Bee
California is dreaming again of a cigar-shaped superstar hanging out in the sun for thousands of miles along the equator. El Niño, the moody blob of warm ocean water, is spreading in the Pacific right now.
Last year when El Niño began hinting at an appearance, media mania descended quickly, raising the possibility of a gully-washing winter to break the intense drought. A dud of a winter followed.
This time, the headlines might be right, say seasoned climatologists, such as Kelly Redmond of the Desert Research Institute in Reno. This is beginning to look like the rain festival of 1997-98, when the most powerful El Niño on record helped double average precipitation here.
But Redmond and other scientists always say this phenomenon has many personalities. Nobody really knows which one will show up. Will it suddenly cool down and turn into a wimp, as it did last year?
Maybe not this time.
El Niño prediction has not advanced much in the last 15 years, Redmond says. It is possible for science to learn more and fine-tune prediction, he says, but there
haven’t been many big breakthroughs since the 1990s.
“That said, I’ll be surprised if we don’t see something besides drought this winter,” Redmond says. “It’s darned hard to predict, so you have to be careful not to overstate or understate.”
And that may be the toughest part of following a capricious superstar, scientists say. They are trying to balance the message while explaining the event to folks who often just don’t get it.
Some people think it actually happens in California, scientists say. It does not.
“Some people think it’s a storm system,” says warning coordination meteorologist Jerald Meadows of the National Weather Service in Hanford. “It’s not that.”
WIND, WATER, ANCHOVIES
When you think of El Niño, think coastal Peru in South America, not California. Peruvian fishermen first noticed El Niño changes in the 1800s when their world-class anchovy fishery would sometimes collapse.
The fish need the plankton brought up by rising cold water that mysteriously stops every several years. Since the problem usually happened around Christmas, they called it El Niño — the child, or the Christ child.
Scientists later linked it to the dying trade winds that blow east toward Asia. As the wind dies, the sun heats the ocean down to about 100 yards below the surface. The warm surface water spreads along the equator until it covers an area twice the size of the United States, climatologists say.
The amount of heat energy has been compared to the atomic bomb. In the huge wet season of 1997-98, El Niño had more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs, scientists say. That heat energy causes the high-speed wind known as the jet stream to dip south — a powerful force drawing moisture and storms with it.
“It’s like being on steroids,” said consulting meteorologist Jan Null in the Bay Area.
That kind of power affects weather in many parts of the globe. There is often flooding in arid parts of Peru and Ecuador. Australia and Indonesia often experience drought. And, as the jet stream blasts across the southern states, it can mute the impacts of the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season.
Southern California can be pounded with moist storms for months at a time. Moving north in California, the effect tends to taper off, scientists say.
But unless El Niño is very warm and strong, it is not reliable, meaning anything could happen. That may be why the cooler episode of El Niño last year had little effect in breaking the drought, scientists say. And many other things are going on in the chaos of Earth’s weather.
“El Niño is the biggest player we know in global weather,” Null says. “It’s the superstar. But you have to remember, it’s not the only player out there.”
One of those players is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a decade-long swing between warm and cool ocean temperatures.
This longer-term event is influencing California’s drought, helping to create a vast pool of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska, says Fresno meteorologist Steve Johnson.
In the process, a freakish dome of air has risen over the last few years, bouncing storms away from California through the drought. The dome has been nicknamed by forecasters “the ridiculously resilient ridge.”
“I think people should know the warm water is still in the Gulf of Alaska,” Johnson says. “What does that mean for the strong El Niño building at the equator?”
It could be a good thing, because this setup apparently happened during the huge 1997-98 wet season. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was in a similar warm cycle.
Even more telling, the water temperature right now along the equator is comparable to the ocean temperatures in summer 1997, Johnson says. More meteorologists suspect a very strong event this fall.
Says Johnson: “I think it’s possible we’re in for a hell of a wet season.”
Climatologist Redmond adds that people need to be patient if the downpours don’t start on Nov.
1. The 1997-98 season was not memorable until early February. He says he remembers seeing signs asking where El Niño was in January.
“Then the steady rain started on Feb. 2,” he says. “And it just kept going week after week.”
By the end of February, the community of Earlimart in Tulare County was overwhelmed with floodwater from the nearby White River. The normally small river also spilled onto Highway 99, shutting down the traffic artery.
FACES OF EL NIÑO
Bay Area meteorologist Null knows the splintered personality of El Niño. Null has a big collection of easily understood El Niño analyses, including a breakdown of precipitation in the four types of events.
El Niños are classified as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, depending on how warm the ocean becomes.
There have only been two very strong El Niños dating back 65 years — the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events. Most places in California got more than 150% of average rain and snow. Many got 200%, or twice the normal amount.
But if the event is just one step down in strength
— a strong El Niño — it’s not as certain. Of the four strong events since 1950, two seasons wound up below average in many California locations, including the mountains east of Fresno and east of Sacramento.
“Unless you’re looking at a very strong event, you have to be careful about how you explain it,” Null says.
The next question is a no-brainer: Will California suffer catastrophic flooding during a very strong El Niño? Damage during the 1997-98 monster season ranked 10th among the costliest flood years, according to Null’s statistics.
The other very strong El Niño, 1982-83, is third. The worst year was 1994-95 during a moderate El Niño. The damage was $1.95 billion.
The rest of the 10 worst flooding years included two La Niña years when the water at the equator was cooler than average. It may seem odd, because La Niña often means less rainfall in California. The other four flood years happened when the ocean temperature was average.
“What does that mean? Flooding happens here,” Null says.
Why does El Niño have so many faces? Climatologist Redmond says the variations could have something to do with the locations of the warmest areas, but there could be many other factors as well.
“Does it make a difference if the patterns of warmth are nearer Peru and the Galapagos?” he asks. “We’re talking about a lens of shallow warm water across thousands of miles of the planet. We just don’t know enough about it yet.”